Forecasting the number of individual per dentist in Turkey; Comparison of Box-Jenkins and Brown Exponential Smoothing Estimation Methods

INTRODUCTION: Oral and dental diseases and the fight against these diseases are a difficult and costly issue for our country and most of the world countries. Protective and informative dentistry practices may be realized with the prospective realistic planning of Dentist personnel trained at adequate number and Oral Dental Health services.
METHODS: The aim of this study is to model the series of number of individual per dentist personnel in Turkey between the years of 1951-2016 with Box-Jenkins and Brown Exponential Smoothing methods, and to provide these forecast models derived to guide the policy-makers. Number of patient per dentist personnel is calculated prospectively in this study and values expected until 2023 are found with Box Jenkins and Brown Exponential Smoothing methods frequently used in making prospective forecasts.
RESULTS: Calculations of these two models are compared in terms of decision-making criteria and it is concluded that Brown Exponential Smoothing model produces more coherent results than Box Jenkins model on behalf of making prospective forecasts. For all fit statistics are better than Box Jenkins model regarding the Brown Exponential Smoothing method, notably MAPE value.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: While the importance of oral and dental diseases and struggle with these diseases could not be understood adequately in the world, the existing gap in this field in Turkey should be removed with the realistic state policies immediately. Oral and dental health that is required to be seen as a part of public health should be planned by the socio-economic condition of the society both in delivery of service and finance.